Thai Cotton Textile: Import Dependence and the Cycle Beneath It

Questions this report answers

How dependent is Thai cotton-textile production on imports? Thailand imported USD 485.5M🔒 of cotton in 2024 per Trading Economics' UN COMTRADE series — covering roughly 98%🔒 of mill consumption. The top three origins are the United States, Brazil, and India per OEC HS 52 mapping and USDA FAS Thailand cotton update. Domestic raw-cotton production is a marginal sliver (~2%🔒) and not a credible substitute path.^{[3, 5, 4]}

How does the Cotlook A index transmit to Thai mill margins? The Cotlook A index ran 107 c/lb (Feb 2024 high) to 78 c/lb (Jul 2024 low) and reopened October at 85 c/lb. World output was 25.325M🔒 tonnes against consumption of 24.389M🔒 tonnes per Cotlook 2024/25 season summaries. Thai mills price into the swing with a one-quarter pass-through lag — a 30 c/lb peak-to-trough moves the cost-of-goods materially within a half-year window.^[6]

Where does Thailand sit in the global mid-market squeeze? Vietnam targeted USD 44B🔒 garment exports in 2024 (+11%🔒 YoY) versus Bangladesh USD 40.5B🔒 per Sourcing Journal. Thailand sits structurally above Bangladesh on labour cost and below Vietnam on scale; the mid-market positioning depends on cotton-blend specialty (Tuntex polyester-cotton), BOI promotion (eligible Light Industry activities at A1+/A1 uncapped CIT exemption tier), and CBAM-defensive pivot toward higher-value technical fabrics.^{[9, 7]}

What is the EU CBAM scope-creep risk for Thai cotton-textile exporters? CBAM's full operational phase begins 1 Jan 2026 covering cement, iron, steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity, and hydrogen. Finished garments are excluded today; metal trim (zippers, buttons) is in scope. The scope review concludes by end-2025 with a legislative proposal in early-2026; expansion to all EU-ETS sectors is the binary risk that reshapes EU-bound finished-garment exposure for Thai mills.^[8]

Executive summary

Thai cotton-textile production runs almost entirely on imported raw fibre. UN COMTRADE-derived data for 2024 puts cotton imports at USD 485.5M🔒, with the United States, Brazil, and India as the top three origins per OEC and USDA FAS. The Thai textile market itself was estimated to surpass USD 22.5B🔒 in 2024 with a 5.7%🔒 CAGR through 2032 per Verified Market Research; Mordor Intelligence puts the operator base at roughly 2,000 garment companies concentrated in Bangkok and Eastern Thailand.^{[3, 2, 1, 5, 4]}

Cotton-cycle pricing is the through-cycle margin variable. The Cotlook A index ran from a 107 c/lb February 2024 high to a 78 c/lb July 2024 low and reopened October at 85 c/lb. Thai mills price into the swing with a one-quarter pass-through lag, which means the FY2024 cotton-input bill compressed sharply from 1H24 highs to 2H24 lows. World output of 25.325M🔒 tonnes against consumption of 24.389M🔒 tonnes leaves the global stock-to-use ratio sensitive to weather and Chinese-demand shocks.^[6]

The structural read for Thai cotton-textile is the mid-market positioning under three policy variables. Vietnam (USD 44B🔒 garment exports targeted 2024, +11%🔒 YoY) sets the scale-and-cost benchmark above; Bangladesh (USD 40.5B🔒) sets the labour-cost benchmark below. The BOI 2025 incentive structure keeps cotton-blend spinning eligible for A1+/A1 uncapped CIT exemption with the substantial-transformation rule (HS 4-digit change). EU CBAM scope expansion (legislative proposal early-2026) is the binary policy variable that reshapes EU-bound finished-garment competitiveness over the 2026-2030 horizon.^{[9, 7, 8]}

Cotton import source mix 2024 (illustrative %)