Origin Property: Condo Pipeline and Foreign-Buyer Mix

Questions this report answers

How large is Origin's foreign-sales programme, and how does it compare with the Thai market? Origin reported H1 2024 foreign sales of THB 2.5B🔒 (+253%🔒 YoY) and FY2024 foreign transfers of THB 6.3B🔒 (+30%🔒 YoY) per the company's own press release. The market-wide REIC FY2024 foreign-condo transfer figure was THB 68.18B🔒 across 14,573 units — Origin's THB 6.3B🔒 represents roughly 9%🔒 of sector-wide foreign-transfer value, an outsized share for a mid-cap developer.^{[1, 4]}

What is the Nomura Real Estate JV and why does it matter? The JV was first announced in 2017 as a four-project condo programme worth THB 8.6B🔒; it was subsequently extended through 2024 to a multi-project portfolio above THB 40B🔒 per Bangkok Post. Nomura Real Estate brings a Japan-buyer access channel, JV-construction-cost discipline, and balance-sheet sharing on large projects — the partnership is the primary structural lever behind Origin's premium-mix positioning.^{[3, 8]}

How has foreign-buyer nationality shifted? REIC FY2024 data show China still the largest single nationality at 5,670 units (39%🔒 of total foreign transfers by unit count) but down 14.3%🔒 YoY by units and 22.2%🔒 by value. Myanmar surged to 1,388 units (+146.1%🔒 YoY) and Taiwan to 836 units (+57.1%🔒 YoY). Origin's own disclosure describes a rotation from Russia and China toward Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Myanmar — consistent with the REIC sector-level nationality shift.^{[4, 1]}

What does the 49%🔒 foreign-quota cap mean in practice? Under the Condominium Act B.E. 2522 (1979), foreign ownership is capped at 49%🔒 of total sellable area per registered building. In high-demand Bangkok BTS-MRT-line and Phuket projects, the quota can fill quickly. The government cabinet considered raising the cap to 75%🔒 in April 2024 but the amendment was not legislated as of September 2025 — leaving Origin's pipeline planning in a 49%🔒-constrained environment for the near term.^{[7, 6]}

Executive summary

Origin Property (SET: ORI) is a Bangkok-headquartered mid-premium condo developer listed on the SET since 2015. Its three operating arms — Origin Vertical (condo), Britania (low-rise), and One Origin Industrial (commercial and industrial estate) — give the group a segmented revenue base, but condo presales remain the dominant earnings driver. The company has positioned itself as the highest-foreign-mix developer in the Thai listed cohort: H1 2024 foreign sales of THB 2.5B🔒 (+253%🔒 YoY) followed by FY2024 full-year foreign transfers of THB 6.3B🔒 (+30%🔒 YoY) underline this differentiation.^{[1, 8]}

The 2024 condo pipeline was the most ambitious in Origin's history. Origin Vertical targeted 14 new condo launches with a combined value of THB 20B🔒; H1 2024 delivered 5 launches worth THB 9.68B🔒, with a backlog already above THB 4.66B🔒 at midyear. Destination split spans Bangkok BTS and MRT corridors for domestic and foreign mid-premium buyers, and Phuket second-home projects targeting Chinese, Taiwan, and Myanmar buyers seeking second-home access. Pattaya and Samui are secondary tourism-destination markets in the mix.^{[2, 1]}

The structural backdrop for Origin's foreign-buyer model is a sector-wide nationality rotation. REIC FY2024 data record a 14.3%🔒 unit-count decline in Chinese buyers and a 22.2%🔒 value decline — driven by softer Chinese consumer sentiment and capital-outflow friction. Myanmar and Taiwan stepped into the gap: Myanmar units rose 146.1%🔒 YoY to 1,388 (value THB 7.04B🔒), and Taiwan rose 57.1%🔒 to 836 units (value THB 4.3B🔒). Origin's own buyer mix rotated similarly, with expansion plans targeting Arab, Dubai, and Indian markets flagged in H2 2024 disclosures. The BOT LTV regime and household debt above 90%🔒 of GDP continue to suppress domestic condo demand, reinforcing the strategic logic of foreign-buyer revenue as a margin stabiliser.^{[4, 1, 11]}

Origin Property foreign-sales and condo pipeline (H1 2024, FY2024)

REIC FY2024 foreign condo transfers by top nationality (units)