Reference
·Supporting source
EU CBAM Phase 2 Thai polymer exposure
~USD 200-350M/yr exposed
The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Phase 2, taking effect with full financial liability from January 2026, currently covers cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity, and hydrogen. The Phase 2 scope-extension consultation under way at the European Commission is expected to add basic chemicals (including ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, polypropylene, and PVC) by 2027-2028. Thai polyolefin and PVC exports to the EU are estimated at USD 200-350 million annually per Thai Customs and the Department of Foreign Trade data, with PTTGC, SCGC, and Indorama Ventures (PET) as the largest exposed exporters. PET resin is partially exposed via IVL's EU production footprint.
Figure in context
The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Phase 2, taking effect with full financial liability from January 2026, currently covers cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity, and hydrogen. The Phase 2 scope-extension consultation under way at the European Commission is expected to add basic chemicals (including ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, polypropylene, and PVC) by 2027-2028. Thai polyolefin and PVC exports to the EU are estimated at USD 200-350 million annually per Thai Customs and the Department of Foreign Trade data, with PTTGC, SCGC, and Indorama Ventures (PET) as the largest exposed exporters. PET resin is partially exposed via IVL's EU production footprint.
The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Phase 2, taking effect with full financial liability from January 2026, currently covers cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity, and hydrogen. The Phase 2 scope-extension consultation under way at the European Commission is expected to add basic chemicals (including ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, polypropylene, and PVC) by 2027-2028. Thai polyolefin and PVC exports to the EU are estimated at USD 200-350 million annually per Thai Customs and the Department of Foreign Trade data, with PTTGC, SCGC, and Indorama Ventures (PET) as the largest exposed exporters. PET resin is partially exposed via IVL's EU production footprint.
Time scope
2024 baseline, 2027-2028 phased risk
Source basis
Supporting source
Interpretation notes
What this tells you
The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Phase 2, taking effect with full financial liability from January 2026, currently covers cement, iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity, and hydrogen. The Phase 2 scope-extension consultation under way at the European Commission is expected to add basic chemicals (including ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, polypropylene, and PVC) by 2027-2028. Thai polyolefin and PVC exports to the EU are estimated at USD 200-350 million annually per Thai Customs and the Department of Foreign Trade data, with PTTGC, SCGC, and Indorama Ventures (PET) as the largest exposed exporters. PET resin is partially exposed via IVL's EU production footprint.
What not to do with it
Polymer inclusion in CBAM is still under consultation as of mid-2025; the exposure figure assumes basic polymer inclusion lands in the 2027-2028 extension. Cement and steel CBAM coverage is already locked in for January 2026.
Related figures
Adjacent numbers that add context without drowning the value.
Thai chemical and petrochemical sector revenue (2020-2024)
FTI Petrochemical Industry Club, NESDC National Accounts, PTTGC/IRPC/IVL/SCGC annual reports
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) revenue (2020-2024)
PTTGC, SET annual filings, Allnex acquisition disclosures
Indorama Ventures (IVL) EBITDA (2020-2024)
Indorama Ventures, IVL quarterly earnings releases, Bloomberg Intelligence chemicals coverage
Thai ethylene cracker capacity utilisation (2020-2024)
S&P Global Chemicals / IHS Markit, PTTGC and SCGC quarterly operating reports, Petrochemicals Asia
China ethylene capacity at structural closure risk
S&P Global Chemicals, IHS Markit Olefins Outlook, PTTGC FY2024 investor presentation, SCGC FY2024 deck
SCGC Long Son Petrochemicals (LSP) Vietnam operating loss
SCG, SCGC investor presentation, Bangkok Post petrochemical coverage
Report context
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