Reference
·Supporting source
Thailand EU CBAM Phase 2 exposure (steel)
~THB 28B at risk
EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Phase 2 begins 1 January 2026 with mandatory certificate purchases for embedded emissions in steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen, and electricity. Kasikorn Research Centre estimates Thailand's total CBAM exposure at roughly 3.8% of EU-bound exports, or about THB 28 billion in 2026 baseline impact. Steel and aluminium absorb the largest share given Thailand's higher carbon intensity per tonne (EAF and BF-BOF mix versus EU benchmark). Thai mills are largely EAF-scrap based, which gives a relative CO2-per-tonne advantage versus integrated mills, but verification overhead, monitoring burden, and certificate cost still bite on margin.
Figure in context
EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Phase 2 begins 1 January 2026 with mandatory certificate purchases for embedded emissions in steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen, and electricity. Kasikorn Research Centre estimates Thailand's total CBAM exposure at roughly 3.8% of EU-bound exports, or about THB 28 billion in 2026 baseline impact. Steel and aluminium absorb the largest share given Thailand's higher carbon intensity per tonne (EAF and BF-BOF mix versus EU benchmark). Thai mills are largely EAF-scrap based, which gives a relative CO2-per-tonne advantage versus integrated mills, but verification overhead, monitoring burden, and certificate cost still bite on margin.
EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Phase 2 begins 1 January 2026 with mandatory certificate purchases for embedded emissions in steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen, and electricity. Kasikorn Research Centre estimates Thailand's total CBAM exposure at roughly 3.8% of EU-bound exports, or about THB 28 billion in 2026 baseline impact. Steel and aluminium absorb the largest share given Thailand's higher carbon intensity per tonne (EAF and BF-BOF mix versus EU benchmark). Thai mills are largely EAF-scrap based, which gives a relative CO2-per-tonne advantage versus integrated mills, but verification overhead, monitoring burden, and certificate cost still bite on margin.
Time scope
Phase 2 begins Jan 2026
Source basis
Supporting source
Interpretation notes
What this tells you
EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) Phase 2 begins 1 January 2026 with mandatory certificate purchases for embedded emissions in steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen, and electricity. Kasikorn Research Centre estimates Thailand's total CBAM exposure at roughly 3.8% of EU-bound exports, or about THB 28 billion in 2026 baseline impact. Steel and aluminium absorb the largest share given Thailand's higher carbon intensity per tonne (EAF and BF-BOF mix versus EU benchmark). Thai mills are largely EAF-scrap based, which gives a relative CO2-per-tonne advantage versus integrated mills, but verification overhead, monitoring burden, and certificate cost still bite on margin.
What not to do with it
Headline THB 28B applies to total CBAM-covered Thai exports to EU. Steel slice estimated at THB 12-15B subject to mill product mix and embedded carbon disclosures.
Related figures
Adjacent numbers that add context without drowning the value.
Thailand steel and metal products sector revenue (2020-2024)
Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand, Federation of Thai Industries Steel Industry Club, Krungthai COMPASS, Statista
Thailand finished steel production share by mill
Sahaviriya Steel Industries annual report, Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand mill survey, Tata Steel Thailand filings, Hyundai Steel disclosures
Thailand HRC capacity utilisation (2020-2024)
Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand, South East Asia Iron & Steel Institute, Sahaviriya Steel Industries annual reports, Krungthai COMPASS sector note
Thailand steel imports from China (2020-2024)
Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand import statistics, Tata Steel Thailand investor presentations, Thailand Department of Foreign Trade anti-dumping case file, S&P Global commodity insights
Active Thai anti-dumping cases on Chinese steel
Thailand Department of Foreign Trade, S&P Global, GMK Center, Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand
Sahaviriya Steel Industries (SSI) revenue trend
Sahaviriya Steel Industries SET filings, SSI Annual Report 2024, SET listed company snapshot