Thai Broken-Rice and Second-Grade Export Economics
Thailand exported 1.31M tonnes of broken rice in 2024 (~13% of total rice export volume) and 1.26M tonnes of parboiled rice (~12.7%). Senegal alone took 35.4% of Thai broken rice; South Africa absorbed 60.9% ofβ¦
Key takeaways
- 1
Thailand exported tonnes of broken rice in 2024 (~ of total rice export volume) and tonnes of parboiled (~).
- 2
Senegal alone absorbed of Thai broken rice; Cote d'Ivoire , China , Indonesia , PNG complete the top-5.
- 3
South Africa absorbed of Thai parboiled; Yemen , Benin , Nigeria , Tunisia follow.
- 4
Vietnamese broken FOB collapsed from per tonne (May 2024) to per tonne (Feb 2025) β a nine-year low.
- 5
India's October 2024 export-restriction lift is the structural driver compressing the value-segment margin envelope from below.
- 6
Indonesia's -tonne 2024 Bulog binge will not recur in 2025-2027 as Jakarta moves to a permanent ASEAN import halt.
Questions this report answers
What is the structural shape of Thai broken-rice and second-grade exports? Per TREA destination-by-grade statistics and Krungsri 2026-2028 rice outlook: Thailand shipped tonnes of broken rice and tonnes of parboiled in 2024, together ~ of total rice export volume. Broken-rice flows concentrate on Senegal (), Cote d'Ivoire (), China (), Indonesia (), PNG (); parboiled concentrates on South Africa (), Yemen (), Benin ().[, ]
What broke the value-segment price floor? Per Milling MEA and S&P Global: India removed its broken-rice export ban and parboiled export duty in October 2024. Vietnamese broken FOB fell from per tonne in May 2024 to by December 2024 to by February 2025 β a nine-year low. Thai A1 Super parboiled tracked the slide on a lag, compressing the value-segment margin envelope from below for both Vietnamese and Thai exporters.[, ]
What happens to Indonesia? Per Rice News Today and Jakarta Globe: Indonesia's 2024 imports hit tonnes (Thailand alone ~) on a Bulog monthly tender cadence of ~300,000 tonnes. The 2025-2026 policy direction is a permanent ASEAN halt, with Bulog, Sarinah, and RNI as sole channels for narrow special-case imports. The -tonne 2024 Thai shipment will not recur in 2025-2027 absent a structural Indonesian harvest shock.[, ]
How does the African corridor reset? Per Ecofin and Vietnam.vn Senegal coverage: Africa absorbed a record tonnes of Thai rice in 2024, up YoY. Senegal took 461,804 tonnes (#2 destination after South Africa). The top-5 African buyers (South Africa, Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, Mozambique, Benin) account for > of African Thai rice imports. Senegal's substitution behaviour during India's September 2022 broken-rice ban is the proximate reason Thai A1 Super captured share; India's October 2024 re-entry now re-prices the corridor.[, ]
What is the 2025-2027 export trajectory? Per InfoArroz and TREA: Thai 2025 rice exports are forecast at ~ tonnes versus in 2024 β a drop driven by Indonesia demand collapse and India re-entry. USDA FAS Bangkok pegs MY 2024/25 exports at 7.5 MMT on the same drivers. Domestic broken-rice food and feed demand stays steady at ~4 MMT, providing a price floor.[, , ]
Executive summary
Thai broken-rice and second-grade export economics in 2024 hinge on two structural shocks: India's October 2024 lift of broken-rice export restrictions and parboiled duty (compressing the value-segment price floor), and Indonesia's signalled permanent ASEAN halt (vacating ~ tonnes of 2024 Thai demand). Senegal absorbed of tonnes of Thai broken rice; South Africa absorbed of tonnes of parboiled.[, , ]
Vietnamese broken FOB collapsed from per tonne in May 2024 to per tonne by February 2025 β a nine-year low β and Thai A1 Super tracked the slide on a lag. The value-segment margin envelope is structurally compressed from below for Thai and Vietnamese exporters until India's policy stance reverses.[]
For institutional buyers and exporters: Thai 2025 rice exports forecast ~ tonnes versus in 2024. The structural watch-list is India's broken and parboiled export-policy stance through 2026-2027, Indonesia's ASEAN-halt codification into Bulog rules, and Africa corridor pricing as Indian re-entry settles. Senegal and South Africa are the two structural anchors; defending share against Indian and Vietnamese price competition is the operator priority.[, ]
Broken rice 2024 destination share β Thai exports
Senegal
Share of 1.31M tonnes
35.4%
Notes
Structural anchor; A1 Super 100% broken; India re-entry now re-prices the corridor.
Cote d'Ivoire
Share of 1.31M tonnes
14.6%
Notes
West Africa secondary anchor; price-sensitive on Indian and Vietnamese substitution.
China
Share of 1.31M tonnes
10.3%
Notes
Industrial and feed channel; quota-managed.
Indonesia
Share of 1.31M tonnes
7.5%
Notes
Bulog tender fill; will not recur at 2024 scale in 2025-2027.
PNG
Share of 1.31M tonnes
6.0%
Notes
Niche stable channel; small absolute volume.
Other
Share of 1.31M tonnes
26.2%
Notes
Cameroon, Benin, Philippines, mixed Africa, residual.
| Destination | Share of 1.31M tonnes | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Senegal | 35.4% | Structural anchor; A1 Super 100% broken; India re-entry now re-prices the corridor. |
| Cote d'Ivoire | 14.6% | West Africa secondary anchor; price-sensitive on Indian and Vietnamese substitution. |
| China | 10.3% | Industrial and feed channel; quota-managed. |
| Indonesia | 7.5% | Bulog tender fill; will not recur at 2024 scale in 2025-2027. |
| PNG | 6.0% | Niche stable channel; small absolute volume. |
| Other | 26.2% | Cameroon, Benin, Philippines, mixed Africa, residual. |
Parboiled rice 2024 destination share β Thai exports
South Africa
Share of 1.26M tonnes
60.9%
Notes
Single-buyer concentration risk; Thai parboiled is the structural fill.
Yemen
Share of 1.26M tonnes
15.1%
Notes
Humanitarian and food-aid channel; price-managed.
Benin
Share of 1.26M tonnes
6.2%
Notes
West Africa secondary parboiled buyer.
Nigeria
Share of 1.26M tonnes
2.8%
Notes
Tariff-managed; structural ceiling on Thai share.
Tunisia
Share of 1.26M tonnes
1.9%
Notes
North Africa niche.
Other
Share of 1.26M tonnes
13.1%
Notes
Mixed Africa, Middle East, residual.
| Destination | Share of 1.26M tonnes | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 60.9% | Single-buyer concentration risk; Thai parboiled is the structural fill. |
| Yemen | 15.1% | Humanitarian and food-aid channel; price-managed. |
| Benin | 6.2% | West Africa secondary parboiled buyer. |
| Nigeria | 2.8% | Tariff-managed; structural ceiling on Thai share. |
| Tunisia | 1.9% | North Africa niche. |
| Other | 13.1% | Mixed Africa, Middle East, residual. |
Vietnam 5% broken FOB price slide β May 2024 to Feb 2025
USD per tonne
585
Driver
Pre-shock; India still restricting broken and parboiled.
August 2024
USD per tonne
~540
Driver
Anticipation of Indian policy reversal.
October 2024
USD per tonne
~480
Driver
India formally lifts broken-rice export ban and parboiled duty.
December 2024
USD per tonne
415
Driver
West African contracts re-price; Thai A1 Super tracks on lag.
February 2025
USD per tonne
399
Driver
Nine-year low; value-segment margin envelope compressed from below.
| Month | USD per tonne | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| May 2024 | 585 | Pre-shock; India still restricting broken and parboiled. |
| August 2024 | ~540 | Anticipation of Indian policy reversal. |
| October 2024 | ~480 | India formally lifts broken-rice export ban and parboiled duty. |
| December 2024 | 415 | West African contracts re-price; Thai A1 Super tracks on lag. |
| February 2025 | 399 | Nine-year low; value-segment margin envelope compressed from below. |
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