Thailand Carbon Credit & T-VER Deep Dive

Executive summary

Thai carbon credit market is administered by TGO (Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization, Public Organization) which operates T-VER (Thailand Voluntary Emission Reduction) — Thailand's domestic voluntary carbon registry. Cumulative T-VER issuance ~12-15M🔒 tCO2e since launch; annual issuance growing. Spot price varies widely THB 50-300🔒/tCO2e — commodity-grade renewable, biomass, landfill methane at lower end; high-integrity nature-based, community-co-benefit, premium-vintage at upper end. FTIX (Future Thailand Index Exchange), Carbon Markets Club provide marketplace, bid-ask, trading, retirement registry. Standards mix: T-VER ~42%🔒 of Thai-corporate carbon-offset transaction volume, Verra VCS ~24%🔒, Gold Standard ~14%🔒, Article 6.4 ITMO ~10%🔒, ICVCM CCP, ART TREES, others ~10%🔒.^{[1, 2, 3, 4, 12]}

Buyers, drivers: PTT (SET: PTT), PTT subsidiaries (PTTEP, PTT Global Chemical, IRPC, GPSC, Banpu Power) net-zero 2050 commitments, offset purchase; SCG (SET: SCC) net-zero 2050, cement carbon transition (Type IL low-carbon cement); CP Group (CPF, CP All, CP Axtra) carbon-neutral commitments; ThaiBev, Charoen Pokphand, ICBC, Toyota Thailand, multinationals, RE100 corporates. Drivers: Scope 1-2-3 disclosure (CDP, GRI, ISSB IFRS S1/S2, EU CSRD, SET listed-company sustainability reporting); supplier audit, customer ESG ratings (MSCI ESG, Sustainalytics, S&P CSA); voluntary net-zero claims, carbon-neutral product certification; offset, abatement complement to direct decarbonisation. International credits used by Thai corporates exporting to EU, US (CBAM, customer-mandated traceability).^{[8, 10, 5, 12]}

Regulation, framework: Thai Climate Change Act draft 2025-2026 (currently in Parliament) introduces statutory carbon-pricing, emissions-cap, reporting framework, Article 6 ITMO authorisation; ONEP, MNRE, TGO coordinate. Article 6 Paris Agreement: Thailand authorised first ITMO bilateral with Switzerland, Singapore, others — Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes with corresponding adjustment. Carbon tax, ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme) under policy debate; PTT, SCG, power sector likely first regulated entities. EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) covers EU import of cement, steel, aluminium, fertiliser, electricity, hydrogen — affects Thai cement (SCG, TPI Polene), steel (Sahaviriya Steel, G Steel, Millcon), aluminium (PT Indofood-linked), fertiliser exporters; transitional 2023-2026, financial 2026 onward. Forest, REDD+, Mangrove, Blue Carbon project pipeline, Thai Climate Solution Initiative, community-based forestry growing.^{[6, 7, 11, 9, 5]}

Thai carbon credit standards mix (% of FY2024 corporate transaction volume)

Thai T-VER project pipeline mix by methodology (% of registered tCO2e)

EU CBAM Phase 2 — financial-phase impact on Thai exporters

EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) transitions from reporting-only (2023-2025) into financial phase January 2026. Kasikorn Research estimates the initial financial-phase hit at ~3.8%🔒 of Thailand's exports to the EU, or roughly THB 28B🔒/year. Steel and aluminium take the biggest punch: Thai steel exporter CBAM cost ~THB 1,300-1,500🔒/tonne (~1.5-1.7%🔒 of product value), annual CBAM-related cost ~THB 167-193M🔒. Cement and fertiliser are less exposed since Thai cement export to EU is minimal — SCG, TPI Polene, SCCC export primarily to ASEAN regional markets. CBAM Phase 2 implementation drives Thai cement, steel, aluminium, fertiliser, electricity, hydrogen exporters to: (a) measure embedded emissions (MRV — Measurement, Reporting, Verification), (b) buy CBAM certificates or surrender via EU importer, (c) accelerate decarbonisation (Type IL cement, EAF steel, low-carbon aluminium) to lower CBAM exposure.^{[11, 10]}

Carbon-pricing structural pull-through: Thai exporters with embedded-emission disadvantage face EU CBAM tax that scales with carbon price (currently EU ETS ~EUR 60-85🔒/tCO2e, equivalent THB 2,400-3,400🔒/tCO2e — a 10-50x premium over Thai voluntary T-VER spot THB 50-300🔒/tCO2e). This price gap is the structural argument for Thai industrial decarbonisation investment — alternative-fuel substitution in cement kilns, EAF steel adoption, renewable PPA scale-up, ITMO bilateral arrangement with Switzerland, Singapore, Japan, South Korea. Thai Climate Change Act draft (in Parliament 2025-2026) introduces statutory carbon-pricing and emissions-cap that would lift Thai compliance price closer to international benchmarks. Buyer-side: PTT, PTT Global Chemical, IRPC, SCG, SCCC, TPI Polene, Sahaviriya Steel, G Steel, Millcon, Mitr Phol, Bangchak are all named regulated-entity candidates in early ETS scoping.^{[11, 6, 8, 12]}