Thai Fishmeal Byproduct and the Aquafeed Cycle Anchor

Questions this report answers

What is the global fishmeal supply backdrop and how does it affect Thailand? Per IFFO 2024 fishmeal production data, global fishmeal production grew +26%🔒 in 2024 versus 2023, driven by Peru anchovy recovery from El Nino. Per FAO 9M🔒 2024 trade data, fishmeal exports reached 885K🔒 tonnes (vs 460K🔒 tonnes in 2023) with China imports from Peru more than doubling. The structural global-supply recovery sets the pricing-and-availability backdrop for Thai aquafeed buyers; per IFFO China summit, China is projected to capture 52%🔒 of global fishmeal imports by 2034 (up from 48%🔒) — the structural-demand competitive variable.^{[3, 5, 4]}

How does the Thai fishmeal-and-aquafeed cycle work? Thai fishmeal is primarily byproduct of canned-tuna processing trimmings and bycatch from mixed-trawl fisheries — the structural Thai-fishmeal source. The cycle anchor is shrimp aquafeed: per TFM FY2024 results, shrimp feed revenue grew +13.8%🔒 YoY to THB 929M🔒, fish feed +18.2%🔒 to THB 455M🔒, and seabass feed +29.1%🔒. The aquafeed-cycle pull signal is structural: rising aquaculture demand drives feed-mill capacity utilisation, which drives fishmeal procurement volumes. Krungsri's processed-seafood outlook anchors the Thai-side capacity-and-volume context.^{[6, 1, 2]}

What is the CPF demand-substitution signal? Per CPF disclosure, the company cut fishmeal inclusion in shrimp feed from 35%🔒 to 7%🔒 — a structural demand-substitution signal that compresses Thai fishmeal-market growth. CPF targets 5%🔒 inclusion in 3 years; the substitution is driven by alternative-protein sources (insect meal, soybean meal alternatives, microbial proteins) and by sustainability-certification pressure. CPF's MarinTrust, GMP/HACCP, ISO 22000, BAP certifications make CPF the demand-side anchor with structural sustainability-tier requirements that smaller buyers do not impose. The 35%🔒 to 7%🔒 reduction over time materially affects Thai-fishmeal-market sizing.^{[8, 9]}

What is the MarinTrust sustainability-certification framework? Per MarinTrust impact 2024, certified production reached 95K🔒 tonnes in 2024 (+17%🔒 YoY); V3 Factory Standard was issued May 2024 with byproduct-use emphasis. Per MarinTrust Thailand FIP coverage, the Gulf of Thailand mixed-trawl Fishery Improvement Project is the first MarinTrust pilot for Southeast Asian mixed-trawl fisheries — the structural-sustainability-certification anchor for Thai fishmeal export competitiveness. Major aquafeed buyers (CPF, Thai Union Feedmill) increasingly require MarinTrust certification on procured fishmeal volumes.^{[10, 11]}

Executive summary

Thai fishmeal is structurally a byproduct-and-aquafeed-cycle anchor. Per IFFO 2024, global fishmeal production grew +26%🔒 YoY driven by Peru anchovy recovery from El Nino; FAO 9M🔒 2024 data shows global fishmeal exports nearly doubled to 885K🔒 tonnes with China-from-Peru imports more than doubling. The Thai market context: per Krungsri, fishmeal sits at approximately 17%🔒 of Thai canned-and-processed seafood production volume — primarily byproduct of canned-tuna processing trimmings and bycatch from mixed-trawl fisheries. The structural pull-through is the Thai aquafeed cycle: TFM FY2024 shrimp feed +13.8%🔒 YoY to THB 929M🔒, fish feed +18.2%🔒 to THB 455M🔒, seabass feed +29.1%🔒.^{[3, 5, 1, 6]}

CPF is the structural demand-side anchor — and CPF's structural fishmeal-inclusion-reduction is the binding cycle pressure. Per CPF disclosure, fishmeal inclusion in shrimp feed cut from 35%🔒 to 7%🔒 with 5%🔒 target in 3 years. The substitution toward alternative proteins (insect meal, soybean alternatives, microbial proteins) compresses Thai fishmeal-market sizing over the medium term. Per IFFO China summit projections, China is projected to capture 52%🔒 of global fishmeal imports by 2034 (vs 48%🔒 currently) — the global demand competitive variable that shapes Thai aquafeed pricing power.^{[8, 9, 4]}

MarinTrust sustainability certification is the structural-quality-tier anchor. Per MarinTrust 2024 impact, certified production reached 95K🔒 tonnes (+17%🔒 YoY); V3 Factory Standard issued May 2024 emphasises byproduct-use. The Gulf of Thailand mixed-trawl FIP is the first MarinTrust Southeast Asian pilot. Major Thai aquafeed buyers (CPF, Thai Union Feedmill) increasingly require MarinTrust certification on procured volumes, creating a structural quality-tier moat for Thai-certified-fishmeal operators against non-certified suppliers in Vietnam and the Philippines. The 2025-2027 thesis is whether Thai byproduct-fishmeal operators ride the aquafeed-cycle volume growth while structurally absorbing CPF inclusion-rate cuts.^{[10, 11]}

Thai fishmeal capacity and aquafeed buyer mix