Reference
·Primary source
2024 El Nino drought impact on coconut yield
~8-12% yield decline
The 2023-2024 El Nino drought event reduced Thai coconut yields by an estimated 8-12% versus 2023, per Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) field surveys and Thailand Meteorological Department rainfall tracking. Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, and Surat Thani — the three core coconut-growing provinces — saw rainfall deficits of 20-30% during the critical flowering window in Q1-Q2 2024. Recovery is expected over 18-24 months as palm trees re-flower under normalised rainfall, but value-chain processors (Aroy-D, Chaokoh, Vita Coco co-packers) absorbed materially higher raw-coconut procurement costs in late 2024 and Q1 2025.
Figure in context
The 2023-2024 El Nino drought event reduced Thai coconut yields by an estimated 8-12% versus 2023, per Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) field surveys and Thailand Meteorological Department rainfall tracking. Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, and Surat Thani — the three core coconut-growing provinces — saw rainfall deficits of 20-30% during the critical flowering window in Q1-Q2 2024. Recovery is expected over 18-24 months as palm trees re-flower under normalised rainfall, but value-chain processors (Aroy-D, Chaokoh, Vita Coco co-packers) absorbed materially higher raw-coconut procurement costs in late 2024 and Q1 2025.
The 2023-2024 El Nino drought event reduced Thai coconut yields by an estimated 8-12% versus 2023, per Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) field surveys and Thailand Meteorological Department rainfall tracking. Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, and Surat Thani — the three core coconut-growing provinces — saw rainfall deficits of 20-30% during the critical flowering window in Q1-Q2 2024. Recovery is expected over 18-24 months as palm trees re-flower under normalised rainfall, but value-chain processors (Aroy-D, Chaokoh, Vita Coco co-packers) absorbed materially higher raw-coconut procurement costs in late 2024 and Q1 2025.
Time scope
2024 (El Nino impact)
Source basis
Primary source
Interpretation notes
What this tells you
The 2023-2024 El Nino drought event reduced Thai coconut yields by an estimated 8-12% versus 2023, per Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) field surveys and Thailand Meteorological Department rainfall tracking. Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon, and Surat Thani — the three core coconut-growing provinces — saw rainfall deficits of 20-30% during the critical flowering window in Q1-Q2 2024. Recovery is expected over 18-24 months as palm trees re-flower under normalised rainfall, but value-chain processors (Aroy-D, Chaokoh, Vita Coco co-packers) absorbed materially higher raw-coconut procurement costs in late 2024 and Q1 2025.
What not to do with it
Yield decline estimate is per-tree productivity, not total acreage. Total 2024 production volume fell ~5% on the combination of yield drop and continued acreage attrition.
Related figures
Adjacent numbers that add context without drowning the value.
Thailand coconut production volume (2020-2024)
Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Thailand Coconut Association
Thailand coconut water export value (2020-2024)
Thai Customs Department, Department of International Trade Promotion, Thai Coconut Association, Vita Coco 10-K filings
Thailand coconut milk and cream export value (2020-2024)
Thai Customs Department, DITP, Theppadungporn Coconut, Thai Coconut, USDA GAIN reports
Thailand coconut value-chain product mix
Thai Customs Department, DITP, Thailand Coconut Association, Coconut Development Board comparative data
Theppadungporn Coconut (Aroy-D) parent group revenue
Department of Business Development, Aroy-D corporate disclosures, industry import tracking, SET filings for Thai Coconut
Thailand coconut-shell activated charcoal export value
Thai Customs Department, DITP, Carbokarn, industry trade press
Report context
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