Reference
·Supporting source
Thai exporter EU CBAM Phase 2 cost exposure
~USD 350-450M annual (2026 estimate)
Thai exporters of CBAM-covered goods (steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizer, electricity, hydrogen) face estimated incremental annual EU compliance cost of USD 350-450 million from 2026 when CBAM Phase 2 financial liability begins, per modelling by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and Bank of Thailand impact studies. The largest exposure sits with Sahaviriya Steel Industries (SSI), Tata Steel Thailand, and aluminum sub-supply for automotive. Domestic carbon-credit creation under T-VER cannot directly offset CBAM liability under current EU rules; the exposure is therefore a one-way cost unless reciprocal pricing arrangements are agreed.
Figure in context
Thai exporters of CBAM-covered goods (steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizer, electricity, hydrogen) face estimated incremental annual EU compliance cost of USD 350-450 million from 2026 when CBAM Phase 2 financial liability begins, per modelling by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and Bank of Thailand impact studies. The largest exposure sits with Sahaviriya Steel Industries (SSI), Tata Steel Thailand, and aluminum sub-supply for automotive. Domestic carbon-credit creation under T-VER cannot directly offset CBAM liability under current EU rules; the exposure is therefore a one-way cost unless reciprocal pricing arrangements are agreed.
Thai exporters of CBAM-covered goods (steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizer, electricity, hydrogen) face estimated incremental annual EU compliance cost of USD 350-450 million from 2026 when CBAM Phase 2 financial liability begins, per modelling by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and Bank of Thailand impact studies. The largest exposure sits with Sahaviriya Steel Industries (SSI), Tata Steel Thailand, and aluminum sub-supply for automotive. Domestic carbon-credit creation under T-VER cannot directly offset CBAM liability under current EU rules; the exposure is therefore a one-way cost unless reciprocal pricing arrangements are agreed.
Time scope
2026 financial-liability start
Source basis
Supporting source
Interpretation notes
What this tells you
Thai exporters of CBAM-covered goods (steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizer, electricity, hydrogen) face estimated incremental annual EU compliance cost of USD 350-450 million from 2026 when CBAM Phase 2 financial liability begins, per modelling by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) and Bank of Thailand impact studies. The largest exposure sits with Sahaviriya Steel Industries (SSI), Tata Steel Thailand, and aluminum sub-supply for automotive. Domestic carbon-credit creation under T-VER cannot directly offset CBAM liability under current EU rules; the exposure is therefore a one-way cost unless reciprocal pricing arrangements are agreed.
What not to do with it
Estimate covers in-scope iron-steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizer, hydrogen, and electricity exports to the EU. Phase 1 transition reporting started October 2023 (no financial liability); Phase 2 (financial liability) starts 1 January 2026 with full payment.
Related figures
Adjacent numbers that add context without drowning the value.
Thailand T-VER registered project count (2020-2024)
Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization, T-VER Programme annual report, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
T-VER credit issuance volume (2020-2024)
Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization, T-VER annual issuance reports, Carbon Markets Club disclosures
Thailand carbon services sector revenue (2020-2024)
TGO, industry estimates, BCPG/GULF/EA sustainability reports, Bureau Veritas / SGS / DNV Thailand disclosures
Average T-VER credit price (THB per tCO2e, 2020-2024)
Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization, Carbon Markets Club, F&BS Thailand reports
T-VER project type mix by methodology
Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization, T-VER project register, Carbon Markets Club analysis
Switzerland-Thailand Article 6.2 ITMO transaction
Swiss Federal Office for the Environment, KliK Foundation, TGO, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
Report context
Atlas actors in this figure's reports
Profiles covered in the report that cite this number.