Reference

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Primary source

Thailand Working-Age Skill Half-Life and Addressable Reskill Headcount

6-12 year skill half-life; 4.8-7.2M addressable reskill headcount by 2030

As of2025 baseline, 2030 horizon·Sources3·Primary

TDRI's June 2025 policy brief estimates a structural skill half-life of 6 to 12 years across Thai manufacturing and services sectors, with the shortest half-lives in cloud and AI tooling roles and the longest in regulated healthcare. The addressable reskill headcount (workers needing 45-hour-plus certificate-bearing reskill by 2030) sits at 4.8 to 7.2 million, against a working-age population of approximately 28 million. The DSD strategic plan 2026-2030 commits to coverage of the full working-age cohort over the plan horizon. Manufacturing labour displaced by automation, services labour mismatched on AI tooling, and hospitality and caregiving demand outpacing supply are the three loudest cohort signals.

Figure in context

TDRI's June 2025 policy brief estimates a structural skill half-life of 6 to 12 years across Thai manufacturing and services sectors, with the shortest half-lives in cloud and AI tooling roles and the longest in regulated healthcare. The addressable reskill headcount (workers needing 45-hour-plus certificate-bearing reskill by 2030) sits at 4.8 to 7.2 million, against a working-age population of approximately 28 million. The DSD strategic plan 2026-2030 commits to coverage of the full working-age cohort over the plan horizon. Manufacturing labour displaced by automation, services labour mismatched on AI tooling, and hospitality and caregiving demand outpacing supply are the three loudest cohort signals.

TDRI's June 2025 policy brief estimates a structural skill half-life of 6 to 12 years across Thai manufacturing and services sectors, with the shortest half-lives in cloud and AI tooling roles and the longest in regulated healthcare. The addressable reskill headcount (workers needing 45-hour-plus certificate-bearing reskill by 2030) sits at 4.8 to 7.2 million, against a working-age population of approximately 28 million. The DSD strategic plan 2026-2030 commits to coverage of the full working-age cohort over the plan horizon. Manufacturing labour displaced by automation, services labour mismatched on AI tooling, and hospitality and caregiving demand outpacing supply are the three loudest cohort signals.

Time scope

2025 baseline, 2030 horizon

Source basis

Primary source

Interpretation notes

What this tells you

TDRI's June 2025 policy brief estimates a structural skill half-life of 6 to 12 years across Thai manufacturing and services sectors, with the shortest half-lives in cloud and AI tooling roles and the longest in regulated healthcare. The addressable reskill headcount (workers needing 45-hour-plus certificate-bearing reskill by 2030) sits at 4.8 to 7.2 million, against a working-age population of approximately 28 million. The DSD strategic plan 2026-2030 commits to coverage of the full working-age cohort over the plan horizon. Manufacturing labour displaced by automation, services labour mismatched on AI tooling, and hospitality and caregiving demand outpacing supply are the three loudest cohort signals.

What not to do with it

Use the linked report for interpretation and keep basis differences explicit.

Related figures

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Thailand Working-Age Skill Half-Life and Addressable Reskill Headcount · Insight